Moderna says it purchase agreements are in place with United Kingdom, Canada, Taiwan, Kuwait, and Switzerland for 2023 and that it continue negotiations for orders to be delivered later this year and next. Some analysts have predicted that Moderna’s vaccine sales will dip as low as $2 billion in 2024. While the general forecast is steeply downwards. However, forecasts from then on are mixed. These agreements concern vaccines to be delivered in 2022. This figure is covered by advanced purchased agreements for its SpikeVax COVID-19 vaccine, amounting to $21 billion and options worth $500 million. The firm, which currently has a market cap of $58 billion, says it is on track to deliver $21 billion in revenue in 2022. Moderna has strong forecasts for 2022, but the future is uncertain after that. As such, we can see how the pandemic generated revenue growth in a way which is not likely to be repeated. This figure also represented a huge 1234% increase from the $60 million generated in 2019. In 2020, the vaccine maker saw revenues of $803 million. ![]() The figure represents an enormous 2191% jump from 2020. In turn, this saw Moderna generate $18.4 billion in 2021. However, the Moderna vaccine was sold, and continues to be, for around $20-25 a dose. The other vaccines included the AstraZeneca (LSE: AZN) shot that was sold for cost-price by the Anglo-Swedish drugs company. Its shot was one of the first four vaccines approved for use against the virus in the West. These exceptional circumstances propelled Moderna from a company that most people had never heard of, to a household name worldwide. While it is normal for vaccine development to take a decade from discovery to rollout, Spikevax was created and rolled out within a year. Like other vaccines, Spikevax was developed and approved on an accelerated schedule. The shot received emergency approval around the world in 20 and is considered one of the most effective vaccines in the fight against COVID-19. Moderna only has one commercial product and that’s its lifesaving COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax. As a result, I’m not adding Moderna to my portfolio anytime soon and I contend the stock is still overvalued by around 25%. ![]() Despite soaring profits during the pandemic, long-term demand for its only commercial product, the COVID-19 vaccine, will fall drastically. However, I’m concerned about Moderna’s prospects. ![]() Prior to the pandemic, the Massachusetts-based firm was trading for less than $15 a share. In fact, its shot was famously touted as the Rolls-Royce of vaccines, although it was also linked with very rare cases of myocarditis that perhaps caused it to be less popular than the Pfizer (NYSE: PFE ) vaccine by those being vaccinated. Its mRNA vaccine was favoured by governments around the world, including in the US and EU. ![]() The vaccine-maker stock gained massively during the pandemic. But today the stock is trading at $147 – less than a third of its pandemic peak. Moderna shares traded for more than $450 last summer. The Moderna (NASDAQ: NASDAQ: MRNA) share price has fallen from its pandemic peak amid uncertain demand for its lifesaving mRNA vaccine. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome James Fox as a new contributor.
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